The presidential election ticket of incumbent head of state Iliana Yotova and vice-presidential candidate Kiril Vulchev has 41.1 per cent support among those who intend to vote, with former caretaker prime minister Andrei Gyurov and his running mate Georgi Kandev in second place with 28.13 per cent, according to the results of Alpha Research poll, released on October 23 as the official pre-election campaign period came to a close.
Bulgaria is holding regular presidential elections on October 25 2026. If no candidate wins more than 50 per cent of the vote on that day, with voter turnout of at least 50 per cent, a second round will be held on November 1 between the two tickets with the largest shares of votes.
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The Yotova – Vulchev ticket is supported by Prime Minister Roumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria, the Bulgarian Socialist Party and left-wing pro-Russian party ABV. Voter support for the ticket has dropped from the 44.5 per cent shown in Alpha Research’s previous poll, the results of which were published on October 5.
The Gyurov – Kandev ticket is supported by We Continue the Change and Democratic Bulgaria, as well as some extra-parliamentary reformist parties. Support for it has risen from the 26.1 per cent shown in the agency’s previous poll.
Vuzrazhdane’s Kostadin Kostadinov and Petar Volgin are in a distant third place with 12.8 per cent, according to Alpha Research, up from the agency’s previous poll, which showed it at 10.5 per cent.
There are 27 presidential candidates in the 2026 elections. Of the remaining tickets, none has support in double figures.
Alpha Research’s poll at the finale of the election campaign found several more important changes compared with the start.
First, a slight increase in voter turnout, up to 40 per cent compared with 37 per cent at the start of the campaign.
The analysis shows that it is not so much the campaign itself, but the drone attacks on merchant ships in the Bulgarian economic zone and the heated debates on this issue that put a clearer and closer focus on geopolitical dilemmas for the average Bulgarian. Which logically leads to an increase in interest in the elections, Alpha Research said.
Moreover, ensuring national security is among the main functions of the Bulgarian president, the agency said.
The two main pairs of opponents, Gyurov – Kandev and Kostadinov – Volgin, are increasing their results. Against the backdrop of rising tensions in the Black Sea, those candidates who have become exponents of clearer and more categorical positions have achieved higher audibility.
Alpha Research asked respondents to assess the government’s actions after the drone attacks sheds further light on their impact on the election campaign.
Nineteen per cent believe that the cabinet reacted completely adequately. However, 37 per cent believe that it should have sought more active assistance from the EU and Nato, and 24 per cent that it should have maintained complete neutrality.
These attitudes explain why this unexpected “black swan” event led to the increase in support for both pro-European and Eurosceptic opponents recorded in the poll, Alpha Research said.
The agency said that there is a significantly higher stabilisation of the vote for the candidate preferred by voters.
At the end of September, every third person stated that they might change their choice. Over the past month, every fifth person has already made a decision, and only 17 per cent say that they will decide in the days remaining until the elections.
The highest share among them is those who voted in Bulgaria’s April 2026 early parliamentary elections for the Movement for Rights and Freedoms and GERB, followed by those who voted for Radev’s Progressive
Both in terms of relative share and profile, this is a not small and at the same time quite heterogeneous group, Alpha Research said. Even if half of it goes to the polls, changes in the balance of power can be observed until the end of election day.
The poll was done from October 18 to 22 2026. It has been posted published on the agency’s website and was done using Alpha Research’s own funds. The poll covered 1000 adult citizens from all over the country. A two-stage sample with a quota based on the main socio-demographic characteristics was used. The information was collected through a direct standardised interview with tablets at the homes of the respondents. Alpha Research is responsible for the data and interpretation published on its site, but not for any selective or manipulative use of this data.
