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Brazil's Lula would beat Bolsonaro by 1 point in runoff, suggests BTG/Nexus poll

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Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro ​remain statistically tied in a simulated runoff ‌ahead of next month's election, a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showed on Monday, with the leftist incumbent holding ​a narrow lead within the survey's ​margin of error.

If there was a runoff, ⁠Lula would receive 46% of voter support, ​compared with 45% for the eldest son of ​former President Jair Bolsonaro, the poll said.

A September 14 survey had Lula leading Bolsonaro by 47% to 46%.

In ​a first-round scenario, Lula would lead with ​40% of the votes, followed by Bolsonaro (37%), Augusto Cury (6%), Ronaldo ‌Caiado (5%) ⁠and Renan Santos (3%).

The previous first-round survey had Lula at 42%, Bolsonaro at 37% and Cury at 6%.

If no candidate wins more than ​50% of ​valid votes ⁠in the October 4 first round, the two frontrunners advance to ​a runoff on October 25.

Nexus surveyed ​2,006 ⁠people from September 18 to 20. The poll has a margin of error of 2 percentage ⁠points.