A new Channel 13 poll published Wednesday evening projects the opposition bloc would win 57 seats if elections were held today, two seats fewer than the previous poll, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party continues to drop.
The current coalition, according to the poll, wins 49 seats, and the Arab parties 15. The Yashar party, led by Gadi Eisenkot, would be the largest party with 24 seats, a drop of two seats compared to its peak in the previous poll.
Likud plunges to 19 seats, a drop of four seats compared to the previous poll. According to the poll, Naftali Bennett's Together party maintains stability with 13 seats, immediately followed by the Democrats with 11, consistent with the previous poll.
The Arab parties' Joint List wins 10 seats in the first poll conducted after the merger – five seats more than Hadash-Ta'al received without Balad in the previous poll.
The poll further predicts that Yisrael Beiteinu will win nine seats. Otzma Yehudit, United Torah Judaism and Shas each win eight seats – with the latter gaining one seat compared to the last poll.
Religious Zionism maintains its strength with five. The recently announced "Amkha Yisrael" party led by ex-IDF general Ofer Winter (2.2 percent), Chili Tropper and Yoaz Hendel's Zionist Home (2 percent), Benny Gantz's Blue and White (1.8 percent) and Gilad Erdan's "Ha'Ahdut" (0.8 percent) do not pass the electoral threshold.
Additionally, the poll examined possible mergers in the political landscape. A merger of Eisenkot, Bennett and Tropper receives 36 seats, versus only 17 seats for Likud.
The Joint List drops to nine seats in such a scenario. A possible merger of Winter and Smotrich receives seven seats, and Ra'am with Segalovitz on the list remains at five seats. Conversely, a merger of Gantz, Erdan and Ayelet Shaked does not pass the electoral threshold.
The poll was conducted by Hamadad (Samuel Rosner and Noah Slepkov) in cooperation with Stat-Net (Yosef Maklada), Midgam Project (Dr. Ariel Ayalon) and Askaria (Dudi Dror), with 1,407 respondents. Additional data: Hive. Statistical consulting: Prof. David Steinberg. The margin of error is 3.4 percent.
