South Australia looks to 2014 poll

AAP
Tim Dornin


South Australians go to the polls in March next year in an election that may turn out to be closer than many have predicted.

After almost 12 years in office, it will be tough for Premier Jay Weatherill's Labor government to retain enough of its marginal seats to hold off a Liberal opposition that has a new leader in Steven Marshall and a new-found unity.

The premier has faced some big issues in 2013, the decision by car maker Holden to close it local manufacturing operations by the end of 2017, the state's poor economic performance, ongoing controversy over child sex abuse in local schools and voter concerns over cost of living pressures.

But Mr Marshall has failed to set the world on fire and remains something of a mystery to many voters.

PROBABLY THE WORST OF THE PREMIER'S WOES IS THE ECONOMY:

Based on performance indicators, South Australia's economic performance regularly ranks among the lowest of the states.

The deficit has reached record levels and the budget won't return to surplus until 2015/16. The AAA credit rating is a distant memory and thousands of jobs have been lost, primarily in the manufacturing sector.

Mining remains a bright spot on the horizon, although the benefits have been slower coming than expected.

But the biggest issue has been the move by Holden to quit local production. The decision will ultimately result in the loss of 1600 jobs at the assembly plant and possibly thousands more at component companies.

How much Holden's decision impacts on Mr Weatherill's fortunes is hard to tell and will probably depend on what concessions and assistance he is able to secure from the federal government.

The commonwealth will take the brunt of the public blame and the SA Liberals could be caught up in that.

But the worry for the state government is that voters may look to vent their anger as soon as they can, and that means the state poll in March, rather than the next federal election in three years time.

THE GOVERNMENT HAS ALSO BEEN UNDER SIEGE FOR MOST OF THE YEAR OVER THE CHILD SEX ABUSE SAGA:

It all started with some questions in parliament over how the education department and the government handled the rape of young girl at school in Adelaide's western suburbs.

The government defended its role, but launched an independent inquiry when its comments put it at odds with police.

Conducted by a retired Supreme Court judge, the investigation dumped on education officials largely for failing to inform parents at the school about the abuse for more than two years.

A number of senior government advisers were also taken to task for not informing their political masters, but Mr Weatherill, who was education minister at the time, was cleared of any knowledge.

All might have been fine if that's where it ended, but since then a string of other cases have emerged where both the department's actions and the government's response have been questioned.

Liberal and minor parties in parliament also established an inquiry into the rape case, with a brief to look at anything arising from the original independent investigation.

In what smacks of a political exercise, the committee looks set to continue to call witnesses into the new year, close to the election date.

BUT ALL OF THIS MIGHT NOT MATTER IF THE GOVERNMENT COULD SCORE SOME GOALS IN OTHER AREAS:

As with many elections, this one could come down to the hip pocket of voters.

South Australians have been hit hard in recent years with escalating power prices, pushing up the cost of living.

A new desalination plant, which isn't really needed now the drought has broken, has also added to the pain with an increase applied to water prices to help cover the cost of its construction.

The state government has provided some relief where it can, with rebates and increased concessions, but a lack of funds is hampering its efforts to do anything significant.

The premier, who is also the state treasurer, may have the odd bunny or two to pull out of the hat leading up to the poll, but falling revenue leaves him little room to move.

Even leaked details of his election campaign strategy urged all ministers to ensure any proposals were revenue neutral.

BUT IF IT'S NOT LABOR IN MARCH, THEN WHAT ABOUT THE ALTERNATIVE:

Less than a year into the job and in his first term in parliament, Mr Marshall has played it smart so far.

He's kept up a constant attack on the government's own performance and its policies without really revealing too much detail of his own, especially on big issues.

The Liberal leader has talked largely in general terms - a desire to return the budget to surplus as soon as possible, stimulate the economy and build the infrastructure the state needs.

And he's taken a tried and true approach of oppositions for years, including the coalition before the September federal election, by opting for a complete review of government finances if and when a Liberal government takes power.

Mr Marshall didn't help his cause greatly with his almost do nothing approach to Holden. He wasn't willing to criticise his federal colleagues for failing to offer extra assistance and didn't seem to have a concrete plan for convincing the company to stay.

That helped Labor to continue to paint him as a leader with few ideas, but that won't stick unless he comes up short in the run up to the poll.

His biggest worry may well be the surprising unity his party has displayed since he took over from the Isobel Redmond, who went close to taking the Liberals into government in 2010.

The party's track record in recent years suggests such unity won't last forever.