For those eager to see a vote for Canada and an end to the debate over Alberta's future, there are some encouraging signs in the lead-up to Oct. 19.
New polling confirms that public opinion remains solidly on the 'Remain' side. And while such polls raise the spectre of voter apathy, there appears to also be tremendous interest among Alberta voters in making their voices heard.
Elections Alberta says their own survey work indicates that voter turnout for this referendum could reach 85 per cent, which would set a record. The agency is also reporting overwhelming demand for special mail-in ballots — demand that's already several times higher than the most recent provincial election.
However, there is also concern when it comes to Elections Alberta's ability to oversee such a massive and unprecedented referendum campaign. Of course, it is simply dealing with what's been thrust upon it by the government, and trying to make the most with the resources it has available.
This late in the game, we're now left to hope that the organization can keep its head above water, and that potential chaos and disruptions remain manageable. Given the stakes, that's less than ideal.
The demand for special ballots has turned out to be a telling example of this problem. So far, nearly 300,000 special ballots have been requested, dwarfing the 60,000 requested in the 2023 election. As a result, the deadline to apply for a special ballot has suddenly shifted to Sept. 25 — two weeks earlier than had been previously advertised.
But it's not just demand that's creating problems. Elections Alberta has acknowledged that some of the special ballots already sent out have some questions missing.
Moreover, the change in requirements for requesting a special ballot has led to confusion for those receiving one. Previously, voters needed to prove that they couldn't vote in person. That's no longer the case, but the legal attestation is still there, threatening $50,000 fines and two-year prison terms.
Officials have had to scramble to remove that wording from the ballots, and those who received the previous ballots are supposed to just cross out that rather ominous-sounding warning.
It's easy to understand why some voters might have been confused and hesitant to send in that ballot.
And then there's the question of managing all of those ballots — those cast both before and on referendum day. As we recently learned, Elections Alberta is still well short of its staffing goals and has reached out to its provincial counterparts for help.
That, in turn, raises questions about the ability to manage everything else that falls under Elections Alberta's purview.
It's been a few months since we learned of the massive data breach involving Alberta's list of electors. Yet, we've heard very little about the state of the investigation. But adding to that burden has been the challenge of overseeing this campaign and ensuring that all relevant donation, spending and advertising laws are being followed.
We could have been much better prepared for all of this if the government had been more up front about its intentions.
It's clear that the plan all along was to hold a fall referendum, but the government saw political advantage in making it appear as though their hand was forced. As a result, months were squandered due to this political theatre.
Again, we're likely well past the point where additional resources for Elections Alberta could make a difference. The government decided that this vote was necessary and so it bears responsibility for how it's administered.
But we all have a vested interest in a clear and smooth process. Such an outcome shouldn't be left to chance.
