Democrats are staring down a host of primaries this month that will help shape the party’s message heading into November — and potentially its direction for years to come.
June’s monthlong test of the party’s future kicked off Tuesday with a slate of primaries across six states, in which voters mostly chose more establishment-leaning candidates in critical battlegrounds while dealing mixed results for progressives, with some race calls still pending in California.
Next up among the roughly dozen primaries are competitive contests in Maine, Colorado and New York that will test how far the base has shifted on contentious issues like Israel and offer key markers in the ongoing debate over generational change that’s been roiling the party since 2024.
“There’s two levels of the struggle going on here,” said Democratic strategist Ian Russell, who is working on a number of House races this cycle, usually on the side of more-moderate candidates. “There’s the ideological fight, or the candidate-specific fight in certain safe seats, and then the larger fight about who’s best positioned to help win the House.”
Here are some big questions that Democratic voters will answer throughout the rest of June.
Will Democrats keep prioritizing electability in key House battlegrounds?
After a strong showing for establishment-backed, centrist candidates in key battlegrounds in Iowa and New Jersey on Tuesday, and a slightly more mixed bag in California with many races still to be called, Democrats are barreling toward a series of more messy House primaries later this month.
Colorado’s 8th District — a swing seat where Democrats are hoping to oust first-term GOP Rep. Gabe Evans — features one of the hardest-fought races, with progressive state Rep. Manny Rutinel battling fellow state Rep. Shannon Bird, who has the backing of moderate Democratic groups.
The primary, which will take place near the end of June, has featured repeated attacks on Bird for voting against a bill that would have limited state police cooperation with Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
That vote convinced a prominent Democratic Latino group to endorse her opponent in the primary, according to plans shared exclusively with POLITICO. Somos Votantes’ PAC is making its first-ever primary endorsement for Rutinel and planning to put $1.5 million into ads for his race. It’s a sign that immigration issues could become a major litmus test for Democratic candidates moving forward.
“This was a race where the Democratic candidates were not interchangeable,” Melissa Morales, president of Somos PAC, said in an interview. “Latino voters are looking for candidates who are willing to actually fight for our communities. In Colorado eight, we saw one candidate willing to draw a clear line of defense in our communities, and another whose record raised serious concerns for us.”
Maine’s 2nd District, which voted for Trump in 2024 and is open after moderate Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) opted not to run again, also has a deeply divided primary that includes progressive state Auditor Matt Dunlap and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee-backed state Sen. Joe Baldacci.
National Democrats view Baldacci as their only hope to win the seat in November given its Trump lean, and top groups like the House Majority PAC are spending to boost him. Meanwhile, a GOP-linked super PAC has been spending to boost Dunlap, who Republicans view as the weaker candidate, to face former GOP Gov. Paul LePage. Next week’s primary will be a big test for whether the party base will side with someone who has establishment backing over progressive bona fides.
Over in New York’s 17th District, a crowded Democratic field is seeking to take on Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) in one of the three GOP-held House seats that former Vice President Kamala Harris carried in 2024.
Veteran Cait Conley has racked up the most establishment support from groups like The Bench and VoteVets, whose candidates had success in New Jersey and Iowa this week. VoteVets recently launched a $1 million ad campaign for Conley and is touting polling showing her with a lead over the other top contender, Rockland County Legislator Beth Davidson.
And finally, the Democratic primary for retiring GOP Rep. Mark Amodei’s seat in Nevada’s fairly solidly Republican 2nd District has become a microcosm of all of the Democratic Party’s internal fissures. The crowded, eight-person contest has two anti-establishment challengers, one establishment pick and a wealthy self-funder, among others. Notably, both frontrunners — Teresa Benitez-Thompson and Gregg Kidd — have taken a hard left tack on Israel: Kidd says the country committed genocide in Gaza, and both candidates support limiting aid to Israel.
Do voters have a different calculus in statewide races?
June will shed light on whether Democratic voters differ on the kind of candidates they send to Congress versus who they want to lead the state.
While Maine’s high-profile Senate race has gotten the most attention with newcomer oysterman Graham Platner taking the state by a storm (and hitting his own rough weather), the state’s wide-open gubernatorial primary could provide a sense of what the state’s Democratic voters want out of their governor — and whether it’s more of Platner’s brand of progressivism or a less flashy option.
In a state that has long been represented by political moderates — like Gov. Janet Mills, who is term-limited and whose Senate run against Platner ended in disaster — Democratic voters can choose to stick to her path, go for a progressive flamethrower or pick a different model of outsider.
The candidate most closely aligned with Platner in the five-way matchup is former state Senate President Troy Jackson, who has also been endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) and most of Maine’s labor unions.
Jackson shares the progressive lane in the primary with Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, who was endorsed by the progressive Maine People’s Alliance. The two of them — along with former state House majority leader Hannah Pingree, who served prominently in Mills’ cabinet and has the former governor’s endorsement — have formed an alliance. They’ve asked voters to rank all of them, given the ranked-choice system.
But there’s another serious contender from the more centrist lane: former public health official Nirav Shah. Shah, who was on TV nearly every day in Maine during the pandemic as the director of the state’s CDC, emerged as a front-runner in recent months, leading most polls. Progressives recently targeted him with a $175,000 ad campaign, while 314 Action, which is backing Shah, dropped a new ad on Wednesday going after Jackson.
And in Nevada, Attorney General Aaron Ford will likely cruise to victory in his gubernatorial bid, but he has faced a tougher-than-expected challenge from Alexis Hill, a Washoe County commissioner who is blitzing the state with a progressive message.
Will the Israel-critical wing keep rolling?
Democrats’ intraparty struggle over Israel has dominated several major primaries already this year. It’s flaring again in New York and Maryland, where a pair of opposing super PACs are playing — though not directly against each other so far.
American Priorities — a super PAC formed to counter the pro-Israel American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s heavy and controversial spending in Democratic races — is setting its sights on New York, where it’s pledged to put $2 million behind a trio of Israel-critical progressive candidates. Brad Lander and Darializa Avila Chevalier are trying to unseat AIPAC-linked Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat, while Claire Valdez is running for an open seat. American Priorities’ interference comes after it notched a major win Tuesday, helping progressive Israel critic Adam Hawamy emerge from a 12-way primary in New Jersey.
“When the results come in, they’ll make something clear: being honest about U.S. foreign policy and the genocide in Gaza isn’t radical or fringe. It’s where the vast majority of Democrats stand,” an American Priorities spokesperson said in a statement to POLITICO.
In New York’s heavily Jewish 10th District, Lander is positioning himself as the more Israel-critical Jewish Democrat compared to Goldman, and has hammered the incumbent’s ties to the pro-Israel lobby. But Goldman has tried to argue there’s not much daylight between him and his rival on the issue as he fights for his political life.
There is no indication that AIPAC is spending in that race, or others in New York. But its political arm is now boosting state Del. Adrian Boafo in Maryland, where he’s running to replace his former boss, retiring Rep. Steny Hoyer.
AIPAC’s super PAC, United Democracy Project, has already spent over $1 million promoting Boafo on the airwaves. (In somewhat typical AIPAC style, the ad focuses on Boafo’s efforts against Trump’s immigration policies, not on Israel policy.)
The group’s involvement has become a flashpoint on the campaign trail. Two of Boafo’s rivals, including Nancy Pelosi-backed former Capitol Police officer Harry Dunn, are attempting to turn AIPAC’s money into a cudgel.
AIPAC is not the only pro-Israel group playing on the map. Democratic Majority for Israel PAC, which backs pro-Israel Democrats, spent heavily to help Marni von Wilpert advance in the race for retiring GOP Rep. Darrell Issa’s redrawn seat in California. The group has also endorsed Goldman, Boafo and Bird in later June contests, among other candidates.
“Pro-Israel candidates tend to win primaries and are better general electron candidates,” DMFI President Brian Romick said. “We will continue to invest in races where it makes sense, to help Democrats take back the House.”
